How much time do you think we have left?

[DRIVEN]

Self driving cars have been a reality for years. Most kids have little to no interest in cars. Emissions, economy, and safety standards are constantly being increased. Urban areas are being designed to exclude automobile access while remaining infrastructure falls into disrepair. Guns and soda pop are being called health epidemics yet cars kill more people.

Given the nature of nanny states and the exponential development of technology, how many more years do you guys predict we can enjoy driving out own cars? What do you guys see in the future?

 

[axisg]

I talked to one of the Oil Filter manufacturer sales guys a few weeks ago about this. He said per their research they figure 10 years before we hit a critical crunch in the market. As electric vehicles require no fuel, air or oil filters they have done a fair amount of research to how sustainable their industry is.
He was saying that now we are hovering at appx 1% of all new car sales being electric. As fuel prices continue to rise due to less demand that number of Hybrid / Electric car sales increases. So figure roughly that in the next 10 years 50% of new cars sold would be hybrid / electric.
So with that the higher fuel price we get a gas crunch like we seen in the 70's. That has the distinct possibility to will wipe out a big chunk of the cars with poor fuel economy that we drive today. Even worse than Cash for Clunkers.
So out with the old and in with the new. But with the new we get autonomous vehicles like cabs, transport trucks, transit buses all in dedicated lanes in urban settings taking more and more responsibility from the driver and placing in the hands of a Computer Chip. Not entirely bad IMO as there are some very very bad drivers out there.

But in my mind I will be that guy driving an antique car like in Demolition Man whilst everyone else is is cruising around in self driving econoboxes

 

[jakes87SS]

self driving cars wreck its not ready yet. i work at a performance car place there are a crap load of kids into cars, your not looking, old school piloting a gas engine car wil never die, it will decrease but it will never die, there will always be curmudgeons always out running petrol cars. dont panic. we are a smaller percent but we are not a dieing breed.

 

[joesregalproject]

This is something I've been thinking about more and more as self driving technology is becoming more and more mainstream. The things that I find most troubling are the following.

What will happen to the auto body repair industry? If self driving cars don't wreck, the collision industry is doomed. This is a multi-billion dollar industry that employs a lot of people. Also what will happen to truck driving, if trucks can drive themselves?- A lot more people without jobs. While it may be cool to have the technology, I think it may be economically irresponsible to implement it.

I dont like the idea of self driving cars, not just because I'm a car guy, but I don't like someone/something else controlling where I'm going. This goes back to you mentioning a nanny state. The government/vehicle manufacturers, etc. will be able to keep you from going to certain places(remote areas, restricted areas, etc.) if the cars are the ones doing the driving. That's not to say that they actually will keep you from going to such places, but they will have that capability.

I am also a big opponent to Tesla. I believe that Tesla has way to much control over the people who own Tesla cars. If you own a Tesla, they can remotely activate and deactivate your car. I heard a story about a guy who bought a wrecked Tesla, repaired it, and then Tesla refused to reactivate the car after it had been wrecked, so it was essentially a paperweight. I find that disturbing.

All this said, the auto enthusiast community is very strong and there are always going to be people who want to drive their own cars, myself being one of them. I think any movement to try and outlaw human-operated vehicles would be met with great resistance from a percentage of people and would be unlikely to pass. They may greatly increase the cost of conventional vehicle ownership, but I don't think it will be possible to outlaw it.

As long as I'm here they aren't getting my cars, my guns or my Diet Coke.

 

[DRIVEN]

Joe, to your first point, do you think the insurance companies will likely resist? Less drivers = less profits.

 

[307 Regal]

Kids are totally still into cars. Just different cars is all. And as long as they can still have manual control then they can stay interested. With fully automatic control though: that's what would kill it for kids. How many kids are interested in ski-lifts, monorails, and elevators? Ya know?

 

[Clone TIE Pilot]

I heard that the auto industry is predicting that in 20 years there will be no privately owned cars. That it will be all auto driving, ride share pool companies, and that auto manufactures will only be B2B businesses, suppliying self driving cars to ride share firms. Supposedly GM and Ford are trying to develop their own self driving ride share services to compete with ubar and google. Not sure how it would work out in the country but then country folk usually get the shaft. Really if this comes true, it will be a return to the railroads where an oligopoly runs most of the ground transportation. A huge loss of personal freedom which so many are happy to give up.

 

[UNGN]

He was saying that now we are hovering at appx 1% of all new car sales being electric. As fuel prices continue to rise due to less demand that number of Hybrid / Electric car sales increases. So figure roughly that in the next 10 years 50% of new cars sold would be hybrid / electric.
So with that the higher fuel price we get a gas crunch like we seen in the 70's. That has the distinct possibility to will wipe out a big chunk of the cars with poor fuel economy that we drive today. Even worse than Cash for Clunkers.

As cars switch over to electric, fuel prices WILL DROP and not rise. Low fuel prices will lead to less exploration and eventually higher prices which will lead to more exploration and lower prices again.

I wouldn't worry about the price of fuel becoming unaffordable, unless government raise the road taxes on gas to pay for the roads all the electric cars are using but not paying for.

 

[DRIVEN]

I wouldn't worry about the price of fuel becoming unaffordable, unless government raise the road taxes on gas to pay for the roads all the electric cars are using but not paying for.

Agreed. Gas tax is already unfair.
Maybe it'll look more like the way cigarette taxes are supposedly used to "educate" people about the effects of smoking but actually end up in general funds and squandered on whatever?

 

[UNGN]

This is something I've been thinking about more and more as self driving technology is becoming more and more mainstream. The things that I find most troubling are the following.

What will happen to the auto body repair industry? If self driving cars don't wreck, the collision industry is doomed. This is a multi-billion dollar industry that employs a lot of people. Also what will happen to truck driving, if trucks can drive themselves?- A lot more people without jobs. While it may be cool to have the technology, I think it may be economically irresponsible to implement it.

I dont like the idea of self driving cars, not just because I'm a car guy, but I don't like someone/something else controlling where I'm going. This goes back to you mentioning a nanny state. The government/vehicle manufacturers, etc. will be able to keep you from going to certain places(remote areas, restricted areas, etc.) if the cars are the ones doing the driving. That's not to say that they actually will keep you from going to such places, but they will have that capability.

I am also a big opponent to Tesla. I believe that Tesla has way to much control over the people who own Tesla cars. If you own a Tesla, they can remotely activate and deactivate your car. I heard a story about a guy who bought a wrecked Tesla, repaired it, and then Tesla refused to reactivate the car after it had been wrecked, so it was essentially a paperweight. I find that disturbing.

All this said, the auto enthusiast community is very strong and there are always going to be people who want to drive their own cars, myself being one of them. I think any movement to try and outlaw human-operated vehicles would be met with great resistance from a percentage of people and would be unlikely to pass. They may greatly increase the cost of conventional vehicle ownership, but I don't think it will be possible to outlaw it.

As long as I'm here they aren't getting my cars, my guns or my Diet Coke.

My problem with Tesla is its received $4.9 Billion in taxpayer funded subsidies. GM (another Taxpayer funded entity) has had the ability to shut down your car remotely for almost 20 years and have actually been doing it for the past 5 years.

Despite the current crop of morons that think a "socialist system" is better than a "capitalist system", all of this self driving and "Ride Sharing" services that are in our future is because it will be "cheaper" than owning a car. I don't see states like Texas taking steps to make car ownership prohibitively expensive any time soon.

I buy $4,500 cars off craigslist I put 15K miles a year on. Ride sharing services are going to have to be pretty cheap to change my behavior.

My 18 year kid daily drives an $850 car. Good luck changing his behavior, too.