COVID news: About D*MN TIME! SC Governor lifts crowd restrictions and alcohol curfews.

[ck80]

16 confirmed cases in my county on Saturday.

Now, with later hours and more alcohol, and allowing bigger groups starting today...will we see an uptick in cases? My question is, are as many people getting tested as before? Appears we have about a 9% hit rate of cases for the amount of testing since all this started. 207 deaths out of 15K+ cases. I do wonder how many cases are actually from Covid or just Covid-related. Early on they didn't know what the f**k they were doing so death rates were high because everything was stamped "Covid".

I think with the J&J vaccine they'll be able to stab more arms and get ahead of any variant strains. Hopefully. So far, the vaccines seem rather safe, statistically speaking. Sure, an off-shoot of issues here and there, but you get that with any vaccine that was never taken before.

J&J as a vaccine has some rather skewed efficacy rates, and depending where you read, the numbers change. I hate to say it, but, honestly I wonder how much the push to make it sound better is about meeting various 'goals' for dosage distribution rather than best protection.

In the US, the efficacy decreases depending on which strains you measure against - and the fact that the earliest data preceded the more aggressive variants

www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/02/01/novavax-and-johnson--johnsons-vaccines-are-less-effective-against-the-uk-and-south-african-variants


Key takeaway: " J&J press release falls into a similar trap, claiming a 57% efficacy in their South Africa trial"

J&J one-dose Covid vaccine is 66% effective, a weapon but not a knockout punch

Johnson & Johnson said that its single-dose Covid-19 vaccine reduced rates of moderate and severe disease, but the shot appeared less effective against a new coronavirus variant.

www.statnews.com

"Overall, the vaccine was 66% effective at preventing moderate to severe disease 28 days after vaccination. But efficacy differed depending on geography. The shot was 72% effective among clinical trial volunteers in the U.S, but 66% among those in Latin America, and just 57% among those in South Africa. Though markedly below the levels seen with the first two authorized Covid-19 vaccines, those rates are above the thresholds originally set by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for a vaccine to be considered useful."

So as those other strains become more common - one estimate I read posits that within a month over half of infections in the US will be either the variant that's mutated in England or south Africa. Add to that the South American mutation and the change in border policy/assylum/refugee handling and you do have to question what virus we will face and the quality of any vaccine tested and touted based on a virus strain that isn't really being transmitted much anymore...

 

[69hurstolds]

But this is where the speed of only having to do one shot without thawing and all the prep may get you out front of these variants instead of having to wait 6 weeks or more to be considered fully vaccinated. If you're hitting over 50% on a one shot vaccine, that's not a bad thing. And 66% is pretty good in that realm. Unless you get that 2nd shot with the others, you're still probably in that same ballpark, so I don't think the "published horsepower" is anything to get all wadded up over. 95% doesn't mean anything if you can't get that booster.

I wish J&J have got theirs out first so that the bar wouldn't be placed abnormally high with the Moderna and Pfizer efficacy claims so when the J&J came out they wouldn't see it as "inferior" because it is not. Efficacy rates depends on the patient chemistry as well as geography. But if I'm in the U.S., and I don't have a shot and J&J is all they got for me, guess what I'm going to get? I'd even take 33% over 0% any day of the week.

Besides, J&J is researching the possibility of a booster shot as well, and if it is even close to the efficacy of the Moderna or Pfizer version should that come to fruition, it'll be a game-changer. Doctor's offices could store the stuff and help distribute it. And like flu shot variants, they could tweak the vaccines to include more known variants. And while always a step behind, it'll always be chasing the latest variant. Getting herd immunity is the key. We're way past flattening the curve.

I spent a lot of time at an FDA-regulated injectable medicine production facility, and normally this stuff takes 3-5 years to get FDA approval for normal sales. The fact we can even talk about millions already being vaccinated with up to 3 different vaccines less than a year from when we first "locked down to flatten the curve" is astonishing. Risks? Sure. But perfection can't be placed over the good.

 

[ck80]

But this is where the speed of only having to do one shot without thawing and all the prep may get you out front of these variants instead of having to wait 6 weeks or more to be considered fully vaccinated. If you're hitting over 50% on a one shot vaccine, that's not a bad thing. And 66% is pretty good in that realm. Unless you get that 2nd shot with the others, you're still probably in that same ballpark, so I don't think the "published horsepower" is anything to get all wadded up over. 95% doesn't mean anything if you can't get that booster.

I wish J&J have got theirs out first so that the bar wouldn't be placed abnormally high with the Moderna and Pfizer efficacy claims so when the J&J came out they wouldn't see it as "inferior" because it is not. Efficacy rates depends on the patient chemistry as well as geography. But if I'm in the U.S., and I don't have a shot and J&J is all they got for me, guess what I'm going to get? I'd even take 33% over 0% any day of the week.

Besides, J&J is researching the possibility of a booster shot as well, and if it is even close to the efficacy of the Moderna or Pfizer version should that come to fruition, it'll be a game-changer. Doctor's offices could store the stuff and help distribute it. And like flu shot variants, m

I spent a lot of time at an FDA-regulated injectable medicine production facility, and normally this stuff takes 3-5 years to get FDA approval for normal sales. The fact we can even talk about millions already being vaccinated with up to 3 different vaccines less than a year from when we first "locked down to flatten the curve" is astonishing. Risks? Sure. But perfection can't be placed over the good.

Mostly I agree.

But even J&J is a month away from sending their first 2-3 million doses, and then 28 days from full protection beyond the initial shot. That means it's 60 days in a good scenario for 2-3 million getting that 50-60% protection... that's a long time when variations/mutations are coming.

However, regionally herd immunity is going to be a tough nut to crack too. There are a great deal of race-related resistance to taking any of these vaccines.

Part is based on historic (as in 60 or more years ago) practices of unknowing experimentation in communities of color, including the military experiments with mosquitos.

Problem is, when you have large population areas of 40, 50, 60% non-caucasian, and those same populations adopt a wait-and-see approach for other groups to take the vaccines for a long period of time, you won't get your herd immunity anyways. You might, might see 45% adoption or so because not all Caucasians want it either.

So that's a couple sources of Hotspot for cases and potential mutations.

And a newer vaccine faces more resistance than one thats been around a while... heck. Even amongst medical professionals this is happening to too large of a degree. It's hard enough to get people in those situations to go through a single vaccination cycle. Harder still to obtain participation in a series of not-yet-developed boosters.

Yes, if we were talking seasonal flu, 57% would be considered really good. But again, once there are high quality vaccines that tested out 95% or better in trials... well, it's true, for a whole host of reasons, that there will be challenges.

And because the J&J allows the virus to be contracted (just with lesser complications) the J&J won't slow future mutations as much as might be expected either. Mutations only require contraction and replication, not serious hospitalization and death. So again... mutation opportunities.

 

[69hurstolds]

The issue right now is the fact that by the time the non-chosen general population is eligible to get the vaccine, there won't be any choice as to the brand you get.

I'll be happy with no death. I can get the flu. I can get the Covid. I can die from either. More of a chance of problems with Covid, however. Mutations are the virus' way of saying I can't keep killing my hosts, I have to change for both of us to survive. Self-preservation, the most basic trait shared among all species. Not all mutations are a good thing, though. But if I had to contract Covid, I'd still rather get it and NOT die or have complications f*ck me up so bad I can't still have a quality of life.

 

[carnutjw]

Le sigh. Nous n'avons pas de bonne nouvelles.

Merde.

Thanks for talking over the heads of us dullards Mike. Va te faire foutre!

 

[ssn696]

Thanks for talking over the heads of us dullards Mike. Va te faire foutre!

 

[motorheadmike]

Thanks for talking over the heads of us dullards Mike. Va te faire foutre!

 

[carnutjw]

I jest. Just jealous ’cause I’m monolingual.😢

 

[motorheadmike]

I jest. Just jealous ’cause I’m monolingual.😢

Pas de probleme, mon ami. I got the sentiment.

PS. You speak car-guy. It's a subtle and nuanced universal dialect.

 

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