Covid 19 flare up then subsides.

[69hurstolds]

I know what a curve looks like. Especially one that is waning. I cannot say why it is, but it is. I'm happy about that. Here's SC DHEC's graph of Covid Cases. We're now reporting around 500 NEW cases each day. A few weeks ago it was over 1,000 per day. In our county alone, the lowest amount of cases in the state, they say new confirmed cases per day for all this week and last week were like 14, 18, 21, 15, etc. A death here and there, but people aren't dropping like flies. Our new case rate is similar to what it was the first part of June, or roughly 10 weeks ago. And testing is darn near everywhere around here now.

Is it mask wearing? I dunno. I don't care. I think whatever we're doing, we're doing well. The recent dubbing of SC as a "hot spot" is now bullcrap, IMO. It may be spiking here and there, but barring anything strange, I think we're getting this sh*t under control. I suspect that's happening in a lot of places. Must be the protesting. 🙂 Covid won't go near protesting. Hospitals were nearing ICU capacity in the summer, but now none are reporting any overcrowding at all. And many hospitals are doing non-critical surgeries again.

Latest graph:

 

[81Regal]

The numbers are dropping because the aliens are here. 😆

 

[Streetbu]

Oh geez. Well I live in the socialist Republic of NY. If you think it's bad there, try here. Meanwhile, I've been working this whole time, without a break, with no mask, neither do any of my coworkers, which I deal directly with every 10 minutes.... gyms just "opened" this week. Been closed since March. Course you need to wear a mask while working out. LOL any further comments from me will get me banned on this page 🤣

 

[pontiacgp]

I read the virus is more contagious but it's weaker......

 

[81cutlass]

There are 4 ends to the situation as I see

1. The magic silver bullet vaccine arrives
2. Enough of society decides the negative impacts of half arsed lockdowns or precautions the US is in isn't worth the tradeoff in lives saved and it just turns into another thing you can die from
3. It burns out, either it becomes less deadly, we know how to treat it better, the people most at risk die and it fizzles out like a lot of the other 'insert name here' flu
4. You do a hard lockdown (new zealand) for 6 weeks and eliminate it

Problem is
1. Vaccines are never a silver bullet. A non-insignificant amount of the population thinks Bill Gates is trying to shove 5G chips into our brain using a vaccine so not everyone will get it, and even if you do vaccinate everyone it takes a decade+ to eliminate it (polio and others as example) Best case the elderly and at risk get the vaccine so death reduces maybe 30-70% and it still spreads
2. A non-insignificant amount of people are single sighted that one life is worth more than any level of money or normal activities (and I'm not saying whats right or wrong here) so you are likely to hear it in the news for a decade to come
3. It burns out but it will always still kill people so people are still going to be upset
4. You try to enforce something that half of people won't follow and even if you do police it hard, as soon as someone comes from a boat, a plane, walking over a boarder that has it, it spreads, and you go on lockdown again

I see it being kinda a combo of all, but the near term solution being a blend of 2 & 3.

One thing that kills me lately is the media assuming correlation IS causation to Sturgis covid cases. News has pinned 70 cases DIRECTLY on the Sturgis motorcycle rally. The people reported going to Sturgis and then testing positive. Never any mention of they could have likely got it at work, the store in their home town, nothing else. Rally bad, they obviously got it there. If you went to sturgis and test positive you got it from there. If they had contact tracing maybe they could link it but if 5% of the population in the US used it, I'd be shocked, and I guarantee it's sub 1% on motorcyclists.

 

[81cutlass]

Oh and total other hypothesis I have which I have no direct supporting data for but would like to see-

A good percentage of deaths (at least reported from MN, ND, IA and WI local news sources) have been from nursing or assisted living homes. Like 75-90% range. I would like to see the impacted rate between the elderly who live in a nursing or assisted living home vs. those that live with family or in their own home.

I think part of the reason we have such issues with elderly people being hit hard in the US (and why the US numbers look so significant) is how we house our elders. I work with of people from Asia, South America, and other places worldwide at the university and they mention culturally the middle aged children view it as their duty to house their aging parents. When their parents get old, they move in with their children. It's a duty and honor/responsibility. Often the grandparents watch young kids and help keep up the house. Thats even the way the US was 50+ years ago.

In the US today however, if you aren't able to take care of yourself, a good amount of time you get sent to a nursing or assisted living home. It's viewed as culturally bad to put that 'burden' on your children if you need some help and can't live alone. Putting a high population of at risk people in the same relatively confined space is a hotbed for spreading sickness.

Either way, we aren't actually going to know what does squat (6 ft, masks, hand sanitizer, ect) for another 5-15 years.

 

[UNGN]

I was tracking Covid daily since January, because I had visitors coming from Munich and Munich was the first known European Outbreak. Basically the media and local governments have been TERRIBLE. It's like watching a slow motion train wreck.

Way over 50% of the deaths will turn out to be in nursing homes, assisted car living centers and sick people that were in hospitals for something else, and caught Covid in the hospital. Totally inexcusable

If you are over 70, you DO NOT want Covid. At all. If you are under 45 and not overweight, or a Type 1 diabetic. and you get Covid, there is a <.01% chance of dying, which is actually lower than the 2009 swine flu for that age group.

Mandatory masks and Locking down uninfected parts of the country does NOT work. What works long term, with the least amount of social or financial damage, is lock down the old & vulnerable and let the healthy get it, like we should do with EVERY virus. Texas was locked down for 2 month before anyone was exposed to the virus. The virus only started to spread AFTER the rioting and looting THAT WERE A DIRECT RESULT of the lock downs.

In a Political forum, I predicted rioting and looting in the US "were coming" on March 25, because people that would not be harmed by a virus were prevented from living their lives by an old, elite ruling class that might be effected by the virus (or be held responsible for "killing Nana").

Similar to the Arab spring, I think Covid will actually take down world governments in the next 6-9 months as countries currently with high death counts begin to realize herd immunity and open back up, while countries with low deaths and NO immunity face economic collapse as flareup cause shut downs.

The politicization of the virus, the media Shrieking "we're all going to die" and the idea that "big pharma and government will save us" has not been helpful. Telling an overweight person to "stay home" and have a less vulnerable person bring you food/supplies is "fat shaming", therefore, EVERYONE has to stay home. For smart people, who say they "believe in science", there isn't much "science" in this whole pandemic.

"All controlling" countries.. you know, the ones that cane people for spitting their gum out on sidewalk, can't control this virus AND have a working economy. If they can't, there is zero chance the "land of the free and the home of the braze" can.

 

[fleming442]

Governor Hogan has had MD in full tilt mask mode since the beginning. The positivity rate (of those tested) has been hovering around 3.5% for quite a while. It sucks, but appears to work? Yet, Dr. Birx says Baltimore is a hot spot or will be?
I've been working from home since beginning of April, and am actually living within my means, kinda, since ever. There was mention that we'll probably be WFH thru year end. The kid starts public school from home Monday. Wife works from home when she's not traveling most times, anyway. We've........ummm, bonded?

I've watched 3 F1 races from Europe, and they were wearing masks and distancing and no fans. That flies in the face of the conspiracy theorists saying it'll be over after the election.

 

[81Regal]

One thing that kills me lately is the media assuming correlation IS causation to Sturgis covid cases. News has pinned 70 cases DIRECTLY on the Sturgis motorcycle rally. The people reported going to Sturgis and then testing positive. Never any mention of they could have likely got it at work, the store in their home town, nothing else. Rally bad, they obviously got it there. If you went to sturgis and test positive you got it from there. If they had contact tracing maybe they could link it but if 5% of the population in the US used it, I'd be shocked, and I guarantee it's sub 1% on motorcyclists.

Exactly, ever since Noem has decided not to bow down, the media has tried everything they could to make her look bad. Even when our president visited in July it was the same story, the professionals that were interviewed could not figure out how South Dakota did not explode in cases.

 

[Ribbedroof]

Daily numbers of new cases, WITHOUT corresponding number of tests administered is pointless.